Showing posts with label college football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label college football. Show all posts

Monday, September 7, 2009

College Football Week 1 Analysis

1. Easily the best and most significant game of the week was BYU's 14-13 upset of Oklahoma. I, like most other prognosticators, did not believe that BYU had a chance to hang around with the Sooners. Oklahoma had blown away so many quality opponents last season and I did not think BYU could hold up physically to the Sooners combination of size and speed. But in hindsight I should have seen the upset coming. Oklahoma playing a neutral site game in a brand new state of the art stadium against a heavy underdog with an experienced quarterback - Oklahoma's Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State in January 2007 fit that description as well. Oklahoma was breaking in a completely new offensive line and BYU had a veteran quarterback in Max Hall that had the poise and ability to bring his team up and down the field on the Oklahoma defense. Max Hall had to be the key player for BYU as Oklahoma's strong front line completely shut down BYU's running game. Hall did throw 2 interceptions but his play on BYU's game winning drive was outstanding as he led the Cougars 78 yards in nearly 9 minutes for the winning touchdown.

There may be some people who will not give BYU the credit they deserve for this win because Oklahoma's Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford was knocked out of the game with an injury on the final play of the first half. The idea that BYU won because of the Bradford injury is completely off base. Bradford played the entire first half and BYU had stayed right with the Sooners, probably even outplaying the Sooners in the half despite trailing 10-7. Oklahoma had four 3-and-out drives in the half and their only touchdown was set up by a muffed BYU punt return. BYU's huge win has now put themselves in position to have a magical season and they will vault themselves into the Top 10 of the polls.

2. Thursday night's much anticipated matchup between Oregon and Boise State on Boise's blue turf field turned into a dud as Oregon's offense was completely dominated by the Boise State defense. Oregon was held without a first down for the entire first half and never really seriously threatened Boise State in the 2nd half. Boise State should have won the game by 30 points but their own self-inflicted mistakes and sloppy play kept the score down. It is safe to say that the final score of 19-8 was not indicative of how much Boise State outplayed Oregon. This was the debut game of new Oregon coach Chip Kelly who is taking over for underrated longtime coach Mike Bellotti. Bellotti retired from coaching to move over to the position of athletic director at Oregon and early indications are that the program may take a step back without him at the controls.

Overshadowing Boise State's big victory was the postgame sucker punch from Oregon senior running back LeGarrette Blount to the face of a Boise State player. Blount had been chirping in the week leading up to the game, saying that Oregon owed Boise State an "ass whooping" for Boise State's win at Oregon last season. Thus, after Boise State's win on Thursday a Boise State player tapped Blount on the shoulder and said something to him. Blount responded by unleashing a cheap shot on the Boise State player as he was looking away. Blount then backed away, jumping up and down, and whooping and hollering. Blount nearly pulled a Ron Artest on the Boise State fans, as they were heckling him as he walked through the tunnel to the locker room. He had to be restrained by multiple people who escorted him safely to the locker room. As disgraceful and classless as the punch was, it was Blount's behavior after the punch that may have been even more embarrassing for the Oregon program. Athletic director Mike Bellotti is such a classy and no nonsense guy that it came as no surprise that Blount was subsequently suspended for the rest of the season for his actions. Blount has been projected as a 2nd or 3rd round NFL Draft pick in 2010 so his game will translate well to the NFL with all of the troublemakers that play in that league.

3. Ohio State's defense was gashed way too often Saturday by Navy's triple option offense in Ohio State's 31-27 win. With USC coming to Columbus next week there has to be serious concern for the Buckeyes although Terrelle Pryor did have a nice game to open his sophomore season. Speaking of Navy, they have time and again shown how good their program has become. Navy plays such a tough, gutty style of football and they are an easy team to root for. Navy has had some very nice wins the last few years and hanging with Ohio State on the road was just as impressive as some of their big wins have been. Since 2007, Navy has beaten Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Rutgers, and Wake Forest and they have held up well in their other games on the big stage. The rest of Navy's schedule is very manageable and I expect the Midshipmen to have a chance to have 10 wins this season.

4. Texas opened their season with a cupcake in Louisiana-Monroe and won comfortably as expected, 59-20. Contrast that to rival Oklahoma who scheduled a tough BYU team and also have a road game to play at Miami in a few weeks. The rest of Texas's non-conference schedule is relatively easy as well with games against Wyoming, UTEP, and UCF. This brings me to my point regarding the Texas-Oklahoma debate last year as to who deserved to be in the BCS Championship Game. I heard several times during the past few weeks when reading the college football previews that Texas was "royally screwed" last year for getting beat out by Oklahoma for the BCS Championship game berth despite beating Oklahoma head to head. First of all, Texas Tech was also in that mix as part of the three-way tie for the Big XII South. Texas Tech beat Texas who beat Oklahoma who beat Texas Tech, so any way you slice it the head to head factor is rendered moot. Second of all, while the Texas-Oklahoma and Texas-Texas Tech games were both tight games, Oklahoma took Texas Tech behind the woodshed in a 65-21 beatdown. Lastly, I think the biggest factor in Oklahoma's favor in the Oklahoma-Texas-Texas Tech comparison was the difficulty of Oklahoma's non-conference schedule. Oklahoma played eventual Big East champion Cincinnati and a very strong TCU team that ended the year in the Top 10 and beat them both by 25+ points. Texas meanwhile did not play a high quality non-conference opponent and they do not again this season. I get very irritated when I hear the arguing and complaining from people saying Texas got screwed last year. They did not go undefeated and thus they forced the BCS to differentiate between several similar teams and Texas's lack of non-conference schedule strength cost them.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

College Football Preview Part 2

ACC
OVERRATED TEAM: NC State Wolfpack
NC State is getting a lot of pub as a potential sleeper this season thanks largely in part to their strong regular season finish last year when they won their final 4 games to even their conference record to 4-4 and earn themselves a bowl bid. Sophomore dual threat quarterback Russell Wilson was named to the All-ACC first team last year as a freshman and he does give the Pack a chance to compete in this league. But for a team that hasn't had a winning conference record since 2002 I don't see them seriously challenging for the ACC Atlantic title as many prognosticators do. NC State has struggled against the pass and their opponents last season scored at least 24 points in all but 3 games.

UNDERRATED TEAM: Boston College Eagles
Boston College has been such a consistently good program since moving to the ACC for the 2005 season that I think they are being grossly underrated by being picked last in the ACC Atlantic in the media's preseason poll. They are coming off back-to-back Atlantic Division titles under coach Jeff Jagodzinski who was let go during the offseason because he interviewed for the New York Jets' head coach opening against the wishes of BC. BC regrouped after losing longtime head coach Tom O'Brien after the 2006 season and I do not believe that the program will drop off with new coach Frank Spaziani taking over the program. BC has a lot of depth throughout their lineup and they showed that last year by exceeding expectations and winning the Atlantic Division the year after all-world quarterback Matt Ryan graduated. BC has had a winning conference record in all 4 of their seasons in the ACC and they shared the Big East title in their last season in the Big East in 2004. BC is not a flashy team but it is time that people show them
the respect that their program deserves.

PROJECTED STANDINGS (projected conference record):
Atlantic Division
1. Clemson (6-2)
2. Florida State (5-3)
3. Boston College (4-4)
4. Wake Forest (4-4)
5. NC State (3-5)
6. Maryland (3-5)

Coastal Division
1. North Carolina (6-2)
2. Virginia Tech (5-3)
3. Georgia Tech (5-3)
4. Duke (3-5)
5. Miami (2-6)
6. Virginia (2-6)


SEC
OVERRATED TEAM: The entire SEC
The entire SEC as a whole has been regarded as far and away the best conference in America over the past few years. There is a sentiment that players in the SEC are collectively faster and more explosive than the rest of the players in college football. And whoever survives the SEC gauntlet is given the benefit of the doubt in terms of the BCS, as the SEC champion will be said to be deserving of the chance to play in the BCS Championship with all things being equal. While the BCS champion has come from the SEC the past 3 years, I do not believe the whole conference has been clearly superior to the rest of the conferences. Last year particularly, the SEC was down, yet the public perception was that the conference was head and shoulders above the rest of the country. While the SEC might have been great at the very top, I quantify conference strength by how tough the middle and bottom of the conference is. Several SEC teams last year had their worst season in years. Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU were significantly down from their previous few seasons. The SEC went 6-6 head to head versus the ACC last season with Florida accounting for 2 of the SEC's 6 wins. While conference vs. conference records do not necessarily mean a whole lot, this illustrates that the SEC may not be as dominant as it appears to be. I am not trying to say that the SEC is a bad league, but I believe the rest of the top conferences are just as good.

UNDERRATED TEAM: Auburn Tigers
Last season Auburn failed to make a bowl game for the first time since 1999 and somehow it cost head coach Tommy Tuberville his job. Auburn has been such a consistent power in the SEC West this decade that I found it mystifying that a good coach like Tuberville could be fired after one bad year. Auburn struggled last year mainly because of a punchless offense with poor quarterback play, but the defensive talent is still there to make this team a factor in the SEC West. Auburn has been flying under the radar in the lead up to the season, but they will get back to a bowl game and have some big wins this season.

PROJECTED STANDINGS (projected conference record):
East Division
1. Florida (7-1)
2. Georgia (5-3)
3. Tennessee (4-4)
4. South Carolina (3-5)
5. Vanderbilt (2-6)
6. Kentucky (2-6)

West Division
1. Ole Miss (6-2)
2. LSU (5-3)
3. Alabama (5-3)
4. Auburn (4-4)
5. Arkansas (3-5)
6. Mississippi State (2-6)


Big XII
OVERRATED TEAM: Oklahoma State Cowboys
I am not buying into the hype for Oklahoma State as a darkhorse title contender. Sports Illustrated has the Cowboys at #7 in their preseason rankings and the Cowboys are 9th in the AP Preseason poll. Oklahoma State has a very explosive offense with wide receiver Dez Bryant being one of the top wide receivers in the nation with strong senior quarterback Zac Robinson at the helm. But the Cowboys defense was so porous at times last season that it is hard to take this team seriously as a contender. When we last saw Oklahoma State's defense they were letting Oklahoma score on nearly every possession in the regular season finale and getting run over by Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli in the Holiday Bowl. Throw in Texas Tech's 56 point outburst on November 8th and it is easy to have cause for concern for Oklahoma State's potential as a Top 10 team this year. The Cowboys will be tested right out of the gates with Georgia coming to Stillwater in Week 1 and I think the Bulldogs will expose the Cowboys as an overrated team.

UNDERRATED TEAM: Missouri Tigers
Missouri this season is left with the unenviable task of replacing their 3 best players from last season, quarterback Chase Daniel, receiver Jeremy Maclin, and tight end Chase Coffman. Not only did those 3 players carry the bulk of the offensive load for the Tigers for the past few years, but they were among the best at their respective positions in all of college football. Missouri lost a lot of defensive talent from last year as well, but the program has progressed to the point where they should be able to reload and surprise some people who are expecting the Tigers to fall back after back to back North Division titles. I think Missouri will go into the regular season finale Border War against Kansas with a chance to win the Big XII North yet again.

PROJECTED STANDINGS (projected conference record):
North Division
1. Kansas (5-3)
2. Nebraska (5-3)
3. Missouri (4-4)
4. Colorado (3-5)
5. Kansas State (2-6)
6. Iowa State (1-7)

South
Division
1. Oklahoma (7-1)
2. Texas (7-1)
3. Oklahoma State (5-3)
4. Texas Tech (4-4)
5. Baylor (3-5)
6. Texas A & M (2-6)

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

College Football Preview

With the college football season kicking off next week, here is a conference by conference preview, starting with the Big East, Big Ten, and Pac 10.

Big East
OVERRATED TEAM: Pittsburgh Panthers
Pitt lost their best player from last year, workhorse running back LeSean McCoy. Their QB is still Bill Stull who has been absolutely dreadful at times.(See 3-0 Sun Bowl loss to Oregon State for proof) And Dave Wannstedt is shaky as a coach and he has underperformed when compared to previous coach Walt Harris. For a team that last year finally broke a 3 year drought without a bowl appearance I don't see how the talent level is there to warrant Pittsburgh being picked in the preseason media poll as the Big East favorite.

UNDERRATED TEAM: Connecticut Huskies
The Connecticut program has flown under the radar for several years now and they continue to field a competitive and gritty team without the talent level that many Big East schools have. Not many people realize that Uconn won a share of the Big East title with West Virginia in 2007. Coach Randy Edsall has done a masterful job building this program up from a Division 1-AA school to a formidable Big East program. This year's team loses their best player in school history, first round NFL Draft pick Donald Brown, but the defense is strong enough to keep the team in games and I think this team will surprise people as they so often have done during their 5 years as a Big East member.

PROJECTED STANDINGS (projected conference record):
1. Rutgers (5-2)
2. Cincinnati (4-3)
3. West Virginia (4-3)
4. Connecticut (4-3)
5. Pittsburgh (3-4)
6. South Florida (3-4)
7. Louisville (3-4)
8. Syracuse (2-5)


Big Ten

OVERRATED TEAM: Penn State Nittany Lions
Last year's Big Ten Champions begin this year with high expectations, ranked 8th in the Preseason USA Today Coaches' Poll. I don't see the offensive firepower there to warrant such a high ranking. Quarterback Daryll Clark has been serviceable at the position and I do not think he will be able to carry a Penn State team that lost a lot of talent from last year's team including 4-year starting wide receiver Derrick Williams. Joe Paterno's team will take a step back this season.

UNDERRATED TEAM: Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern has a typical Northwestern team again this year- undersized and less talented than its peers, yet tough, gritty, and competitive. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald took over the Northwestern program as the youngest head coach in college football and he has molded the Wildcats into a scrappy bunch, similar to how Fitzgerald was as star linebacker of Northwestern's 1995 Rose Bowl team. Northwestern catches a little break this season in that they do not play league favorite Ohio State. We saw flashes of Northwestern's potential last year when they outplayed Missouri in the Alamo Bowl before losing in overtime. I think this year's team will surprise people by making an appearance or two in the top 25 during the season.


PROJECTED STANDINGS (projected conference record):
1. Ohio State (8-0)
2. Illinois (5-3)
3. Penn State (5-3)
4. Michigan State (5-3)
5. Iowa (5-3)
6. Northwestern (4-4)
7. Minnesota (4-4)
8. Wisconsin (3-5)
9. Michigan (3-5)
10. Indiana (1-7)
11. Purdue (1-7)


Pac - 10
OVERRATED TEAM: California Golden Bears
Every year over the past four seasons, Cal has started the season with high expectations only to fall flat and fail to meet those expectations. I myself will not get suckered into drinking the Cal Kool Aid this year. Cal has high expectations again this year as they were picked to finish 2nd in the Pac-10 preseason media poll behind USC. Cal does have some talent including darkhorse Heisman candidate running back Jahvid Best, but this team does not have the mental toughness needed to win a big game (i.e. beat USC) or avoid the road upset that has plagued them year after year.

UNDERRATED TEAM: Stanford Cardinal
For a Stanford team that hasn't played in a bowl game since 2001, a winning season would be a cause for celebration and I believe this year's team has a good chance to have a winning campaign. The highlight of 3rd year head coach Jim Harbaugh's tenure thus far has been the historic upset of USC at the Coliseum in 2007, but Harbaugh is aiming for bigger things for this program. Stanford has the pieces in place necessary to finish in the top half of the league. Keep an eye out for senior running back Toby Gerhart, who last year broke the school record for rushing yards in a season. Gerhart is a tough, hard-nosed player who is an absolute pleasure to watch play football. Guys like Toby Gerhart help make college football such a great game and I advise football fans to make sure to check this guy out this season.


PROJECTED STANDINGS (projected conference record):
1. Southern California (8-1)
2. Oregon (6-3)
3. California (6-3)
4. Stanford (5-4)
5. Oregon State (5-4)
6. Arizona State (4-5)
7. Arizona (4-5)
8. Washington (3-6)
9. UCLA (3-6)
10. Washington State (1-8)