MLB Progress Report - AL East

As the 2009 calendar turns to August, we are close to two thirds of the way through this year's MLB regular season. The non-waiver trade deadline has passed and the pennant races are heating up. Over the next few days I will offer up my takes on the playoff races. Today I will discuss the AL East.

American League East
As it stands here on August 3rd, the Yankees and Red Sox are tied atop the AL East in the loss column with the Tampa Bay Rays 6 games back. I will dismiss the Rays as a contender because they have been inconsistent nearly the entire season. Their bullpen is shaky and while their starting rotation is nice, they lack the dominant starter or two that the Yankees and Red Sox have. In addition, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena have been major disappointments the past 2 months after each had red hot starts. The dropoff for Longoria has been particularly stunning. Longoria was on a record RBI pace in the middle of May and he finished May with 55 RBI's. In June and July he had 23 RBI's total. Even more discouraging for Rays fans is Longoria's .209 batting average in June and July. Carlos Pena has never hit for a high average but after hitting .231 in April and May, his batting average during June and July was .201, while his homerun production was cut in half during those months. When your #3 and #4 hitters are in major slumps, it puts you at big disadvantage and I don't see how the Rays can make up a 6 game deficit to catch either the Yankees or Red Sox in the standings.

The Yankees will host the Red Sox for a big 4 game series this upcoming weekend looking to finally beat the Red Sox after losing the first 8 meetings of the season. Despite their 0-8 record vs. Boston this year, I would favor the Yankees to win this weekend's series and ultimately outlast the Red Sox to win the AL East. The Red Sox have been struggling with their offense since the All Star Break and John Smoltz has not been good since making his Red Sox debut mid-season. The Red Sox did get healthy over the weekend though by sweeping their perennial whipping boys, the Baltimore Orioles. (Over the past 4 seasons, the Red Sox have a 50-17 record vs. the Orioles.)

The Yankees meanwhile have been red hot. Prior to losing 3 out of 4 to the White Sox this past weekend, the Yankees had won 9 of their previous 10 series. To be blunt, the Yankees should be in 1st place with the offseason moves that they made. The Yankees signed 3 of the top available free agents in the offseason, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixiera, and AJ Burnett, by throwing significantly more money at the players than their next best offers. Adding those big names to the stable of proven Yankee veterans and talented youngsters, the Yankees have the best team in the league on paper, as they have for much of this decade. While World Series championships are not won on paper, regular season games are and the Yankees are a virtual lock to reach the postseason. When it comes to the postseason, however, the Yankees have proven to be failures. Only 5 players remain from the 2004 team that choked away a 3 games to none ALCS lead to the Red Sox, but there have been several other players who have been with the Yankees for their 2006 and 2007 playoff flameouts.

The X-factors for the Yankees' postseason chances this year will be their strong young pitchers, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. Chamberlain has always had great stuff, but as a starting pitcher he has been mostly erratic, often struggling to reach the 7th inning. Since the All Star Break Chamberlain has been very good in his 3 starts, pitching 21 and 2/3 innings while giving up 2 runs and 8 hits combined in the 3 starts. A dominant Chamberlain would give the Yankees a huge edge in the postseason because Sabathia and Burnett have been just a little bit above average as starters this season and projected #2 starter Chien-Ming Wang is out for the season after having a pitched terribly all season long. Meanwhile, Phil Hughes has been great as the 8th inning reliever; he has given up only 1 run in his last 18 appearances spanning 23 and 2/3 innings. A dominant Hughes-Rivera combination will harken back to the days of the late 90's when the great Yankees bullpen was the biggest reason for their postseason success.

Even if the Red Sox can not beat out the Yankees for the AL East title, I do like their chances to win the wildcard, although the Texas Rangers have impressively hung around and only trail the Sox by 2 and 1/2 games. The Red Sox nucleus of Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, Beckett, Wakefield, and Papelbon has only known success and the depth of their pitching staff and bullpen gives them an edge over the Rangers, in my eyes.